Compare NSW and Victoria’s latest economic performance: GDP growth, unemployment, job vacancies, population trends and in-demand occupations. Discover which state offers stronger opportunities for skilled migrants in 2025–2030.
Introduction
Australia’s two largest states are locked in a tight race. As of mid-2025, New South Wales still generates the biggest slice of national GDP, yet Victoria has posted stronger recent growth. Unemployment remains low in both, but job vacancies, population inflows and major infrastructure projects are shifting the balance. For skilled professionals and migrants planning their future in Australia, understanding these labour market trends has never been more important. This detailed comparison reveals which state currently leads — and where the best opportunities lie over the next five years.
NSW Economy: Scale, Strength and Ongoing Challenges
New South Wales remains Australia’s economic powerhouse. Sydney alone drives finance, professional services and a growing tech ecosystem. The state’s gross state product exceeded $750 billion in 2024–25, representing roughly 31 % of national output.
Population growth in NSW reached 1.2 % over the past year, fuelled almost entirely by net overseas migration of 97 000 people. However, high housing costs triggered a net interstate loss of more than 27 000 residents, mainly to Queensland. Unemployment hovers around 4.5 %, slightly above the national average, while business confidence has softened because of rising rents and modest wage growth.
Major infrastructure projects keep construction booming. WestConnex, Sydney Metro expansions and the Western Sydney Airport development continue to create thousands of engineering and trade positions. Renewable energy zones in the Central-West and New England regions are also generating new roles for electrical engineers and project managers. Healthcare faces critical nursing and aged-care shortages, while tech hubs in Sydney keep demand high for software developers, data scientists and cyber-security specialists.
Victoria Economy: Gaining Momentum Fast
Victoria has turned the corner. Gross state product grew 1.1 % in 2024–25, outpacing NSW’s 0.9 %. Service industries led the charge: financial services rose 2.6 %, health care 2.5 % and professional services 2.1 %. Melbourne reclaimed its title as the fastest-growing capital city, with population growth of 1.8 % to over 7.05 million residents.
Net overseas migration added 93 000 people and, while Victoria recorded a rare positive interstate migration balance of 2 300. Lower cost of living compared to Sydney, combined with major projects such as the Melbourne Metro Tunnel (opening 2025), Suburban Rail Loop and airport rail link, has restored business and consumer confidence.
Employment growth remains robust, especially in education, health care and technology. Teaching vacancies are widespread, hospitals urgently need nurses and aged-care workers, and Melbourne’s start-up scene continues to attract software engineers and ICT professionals. Renewable energy zones across Gippsland and the south-west are creating additional engineering and technician roles.
Head-to-Head: Key Economic Indicators in 2025
New South Wales still leads in total economic output and absolute number of job vacancies because of its larger population and established financial centre. Victoria, however, shows stronger percentage growth across most forward-looking metrics: GSP, state final demand, population increase and construction work completed.
Unemployment is marginally higher in Victoria (4.7 % vs ≈4.5 % in NSW), but the gap is narrowing quickly. Both states operate in an extremely tight national labour market where employers struggle to fill skilled positions.
In-Demand Occupations Shaping Both States
Healthcare tops the shortage list nationwide and in both NSW and Victoria. Registered nurses, general practitioners, enrolled nurses and aged-care workers appear on every priority list. Construction and engineering roles remain critical, driven by billions in transport and energy infrastructure.
Technology demand continues to surge. Software developers, ICT security specialists, data analysts and cloud architects are among the fastest-growing occupations through 2030. Education faces ongoing teacher shortages, particularly in STEM subjects and special education. Renewable energy projects have created fresh demand for wind-turbine technicians, solar installers and transmission engineers.
Regional areas in both states offer extra incentives and often faster visa processing for migrants willing to live outside Sydney or Melbourne.
Conclusion
In 2025 Victoria holds the edge in growth momentum, population gains and new project pipelines, while New South Wales retains unmatched scale and depth in finance and established industries. For skilled migrants the choice depends on your profession: Sydney usually offers higher salaries in finance and large-scale tech, Melbourne provides faster growth in health, education and innovative start-ups. Wherever your skills align with current shortages — healthcare, technology, engineering or teaching — both states urgently need talent. Check the latest Skills Priority List and state nomination programs today to position yourself for Australia’s next economic chapter.
